Cyber / Captive Crypto Fund — Backtest Model

Arrington Capital · stylized four-bucket scoping model

Bucket weights

Raw sum 100 → normalized to 100% for the portfolio.

How to read these weights

The four buckets are value shares of the fund that sum to 100% — on a $100M fund the default 10 / 30 / 30 / 30 is $10M / $30M / $30M / $30M. The collar protects only its own slice; cold and trend hold naked crypto and cash earns the money-market rate. It is a carve-out bucket, NOT an overlay across the book.

Live parameters

Structure

The 80/120 collar caps each roll period to ±20%: it blocks a fast crash but not a slow grind (~46% standalone drawdown vs ~76% for raw cold). The 20% target is a portfolio number, not the collar bucket alone.

Equity curve vs BTC buy-and-hold

FundBTC b&h

Rules-based optimizer · cold fixed 10%, MDD ceiling 20%

Methodology & disclosures

Trend-following trade audit

Trade-by-trade log of the trend bucket for the currently selected filter and exposure — every rotation between long crypto and cash, with the BTC-proxy trigger context and the Trend-vs-Cold edge each trade earned. Updates live with the trend filter and the Exp. high / Exp. low / cash-rate sliders.